Global gold
USD 4,156 / oz
Source: goldprice.dev, as of 2026-10-05
PK Gold Dashboard
Today's read
HOLD
No edge either way. Buy only for a reason that is not price.
Why
- The entry score is 50.1, which is Neutral.
- Regime-adjusted valuation/technical sub-score reads 83.0, contributing 31.9 points
- Macro Gold Score reads 24.5, contributing 11.3 points
- USD/PKR positioning reads 44.8, contributing 6.9 points
What would change this
- A rise of 9.9 points, to 60, moves this out of Neutral.
- A fall of 5.1 points, to 45, drops it back to Expensive.
- Local premium z-score is still missing, so this reading is partial.
This is a market read: it says whether gold looks cheap or dear in rupees today, BEFORE your dealer’s spread. Packing, the buy-back discount and any other charge come off on top, and they are what decide whether a round trip actually clears. Enter a dealer quote to fold that in. This verdict has not been tested against what actually happened next. There is no track record behind it yet, so treat it as a reading of today, not a forecast.
Pakistan gold, per tola
Rs 437,000
Source: gold.pk, as of 2026-10-04
Local premium
0.34%
z = 0.55 over 66 observations
Source: gold.pk, as of 2026-10-04
Next event
US CPI release in 7 days 23 hours
Outside the 48-hour window.
Source: static FOMC/CPI schedule, as of 2026-10-13
What would change the verdict
To reach a buying band
+9.9 pts
to 60, which is Attractive
- Macro Gold Score alone: 24.5 → 45.9 (+21.5)
- Regime-adjusted valuation/technical sub-score cannot do it alone: it would need 108.7, outside its 0–100 scale.
- USD/PKR positioning cannot do it alone: it would need 109.2, outside its 0–100 scale.
To fall to a selling band
−5.1 pts
to 45, which is Expensive
- Macro Gold Score alone: 24.5 → 13.4 (−11.0)
- Regime-adjusted valuation/technical sub-score alone: 83.0 → 69.7 (−13.3)
- USD/PKR positioning alone: 44.8 → 11.7 (−33.1)
Next scheduled event: US CPI release in 7 days 23 hours. Scheduled events move prices, but this panel assigns them no points and draws no conclusion from them.
Each line asks what ONE input would have to do while every other input stands still. That is not how markets move — several shift at once, usually together — so treat these as the distance to the wall, not as a route to it. There is no date here, and no claim that any of it will happen.
When it last said something
Last buying window
Never, in the window below. The score has not reached a buying band.
Last selling window
2025-12-29
280 days ago — scored 38.2, Expensive
Replayed 2025-10-06 to 2026-10-05, every 7 days. 41 readings computed, 12 could not be — a day without enough inputs is left blank rather than guessed.
These are HINDSIGHT. They replay today's weights and today's price spine over past data, so they say when the current model would have said buy — not what this dashboard actually said at the time. And they say nothing about what comes next: a past buying window is not a cycle, and three of them are not a schedule. There is no forecast here because the product does not make them.
Has this score ever been right
Not enough data to say
1 independent 180-day window in the whole history. Below 8, nothing below is evidence — it is arithmetic on too few cases.
| Band | n | Median | Mean | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 10 | -12.1% | -14.8% | -31.0 to -4.1 |
12 replayed days had no computable score; 31 had no price 180 days later. Both are dropped rather than filled in.
This replays today's weights and today's price spine over past data, so it measures the current model's hindsight, not what this dashboard said at the time. Windows that overlap share most of their price path, which is why the independent count above is the one that matters and not the row totals. A positive number here means "not yet falsified", never "edge".
Rawalpindi–Islamabad 24K, per tola
Rs 433,177 -29.8% over 207 readings
- Low
- Rs 421,713 (2026-07-20)
- High
- Rs 616,790 (2026-02-06)
Source: pakgold.net. Newest reading 2026-10-05. Redraws on refresh, not live.
PKR Entry Score
The decision score: global conditions, the technical setup, the local premium, the rupee and your dealer, combined.
50.10
Band: Neutral
Reduced confidence: 1 component excluded and the rest renormalised.
- Local premium z-score — unavailable, carrying 27.8% of this block
| Component | Raw value | Normalised | Weight | Contribution | Source | As of | Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro Gold Score | 24.4584 | 24.46 | 46.15 | 11.29 | Macro Gold Score (weights v1) | 2026-08-01 | passthrough (already 0-100 points, clamped): 24.4584 points -> 24.4584 pts; weight 30/90 shipped, renormalised to 46.1538/100; contribution = 24.4584 x 46.1538 / 100 = 11.2885 |
| Regime-adjusted valuation/technical sub-score | 82.9683 | 82.97 | 38.46 | 31.91 | Regime-adjusted valuation sub-score (weights v1) | 2026-10-05 | passthrough (already 0-100 points, clamped): 82.9683 points -> 82.9683 pts; weight 25/90 shipped, renormalised to 38.4615/100; contribution = 82.9683 x 38.4615 / 100 = 31.9109 |
| USD/PKR positioning | 44.8343 | 44.83 | 15.38 | 6.90 | USD/PKR (open-market) distance from its 200-DMA, z-scored (rupee-trend half only) | 2026-10-05 | passthrough (already 0-100 points, clamped): 44.8343 points -> 44.8343 pts; weight 10/90 shipped, renormalised to 15.3846/100; contribution = 44.8343 x 15.3846 / 100 = 6.8976 |
| Sum of contributions | 50.10 | equals the entry score of 50.10 | |||||
Macro Gold Score
Global gold conditions alone. A bearish macro reading can sit beside an attractive local entry; the two are not averaged.
24.46
Valuation / technical sub-score
Regime-adjusted. the gold price is -5.0130% from its 200-DMA, not above it. Computed over COMEX gold futures (GC=F), not spot — the LBMA fix this used to read is no longer served.
82.97
Supporting entry
- Regime-adjusted valuation/technical sub-score 31.91 pts (12.68 vs neutral)
82.97 raw → 83.0 pts at weight 38.5 (Regime-adjusted valuation sub-score (weights v1), as of 2026-10-05)
Reasons to wait
- Macro Gold Score 11.29 pts (-11.79 vs neutral)
24.46 raw → 24.5 pts at weight 46.2 (Macro Gold Score (weights v1), as of 2026-08-01)
- USD/PKR positioning 6.90 pts (-0.79 vs neutral)
44.83 raw → 44.8 pts at weight 15.4 (USD/PKR (open-market) distance from its 200-DMA, z-scored (rupee-trend half only), as of 2026-10-05)
Log today's decision
Rule in force: Neutral — No edge either way. Buy only if you have a non-price reason.
Nothing has been logged yet.